Health Care Reform

Health Care Reform

Final Health Care Tracking Poll: 

58% Oppose the Plan Before Congress

Friday, January 22, 2010 

 Rasmussen Reports has been tracking support and expectations for the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats regularly since last June and weekly for the past six months. Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said House Democrats do not have the votes to pass the legislation in its current form. As a result, this is the final tracking update for that legislation. 

If the Democrats in Congress develop another approach, Rasmussen Reports will resume tracking as appropriate. However, polling released earlier today shows that 61% of voters nationwide want Congress to drop the health care plan and focus on the economy and jobs. 

The final tracking numbers indicate that public expectations for the legislation fell sharply following Tuesday’s Senate vote in Massachusetts. Prior to Republican Scott Brown’s stunning victory in that overwhelmingly Democratic state, 70% of voters nationwide said it was at least somewhat likely the legislation would pass. Polling on Wednesday and Thursday nights found that number had fallen to 42% while 50% said it was unlikely to pass. 

Perhaps more telling is that only 14% now believe the plan is Very Likely to pass while an equal number say it is Not at all Likely to do so. 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The election of a Republican in Massachusetts had little impact on public support for the legislation, though. The final tracking numbers show that 40% of voters nationwide favor the plan while 58% are opposed. Support has remained between 38% and 42% every week since Thanksgiving (see question wording and trends). 

As has been the case throughout the debate, those who feel strongly about the issue are more likely to be opposed. Just 18% of voters Strongly Favor the plan while 50% are Strongly Opposed. That latter figure is the highest level of strong opposition yet recorded. 

For months, most voters have believed that passage of the plan would lead to higher costs and lower quality of care. From the beginning of the health care debate, another challenge has been the fact that most Americans have insurance and are generally happy with their coverage. However, 52% of voters fear that they could be forced to change insurance if the health care legislation passes. 

Adding to concerns about paying for the plan is the fact that 78% of voters expect it to cost more than projected. Voters overwhelmingly believe passage of the plan will increase the federal deficit and lead to middle-class tax hikes. 

Most voters also dislike the propose excise taxes on “Cadillac” health insurance plans. Opposition is even higher when union workers are exempted from that tax, as the White House and Democratic congressional leaders agreed to do last week to get more support for the overall plan. 

While most Americans oppose the plan, two reforms in it are supported by more than 70% of the public -- creating a new national insurance exchange and requiring health insurance companies to accept applicants with pre-existing conditions. 

Also consistent throughout the health care debate has been the partisan nature of the response. The latest numbers show that 75% of Democrats favor the plan, while 89% of Republicans are opposed. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% support the plan, and 66% are opposed. 

Opposition has been strong from senior citizens, the people who use the health care system more than anybody else. The final tracking numbers show that just 35% of seniors favor the plan while 62% oppose it. Those figures include 14% who Strongly Favor it while 52% are Strongly Opposed. 

Rasmussen Reports election night polling showed that health care was a major issue in the Massachusetts race but not decisive. However, 70% of voters nationwide believe it was at least somewhat important in that campaign. Forty-nine percent (49%) say it was Very Important. 

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. 

Health deal was reached days before Brown's Senate victory!

Harkin: Health deal was reached days before Brown's Senate victory
By Alexander Bolton - 01/30/10 03:41 PM ET 

Sen. Tom Harkin, the chairman of the Senate Health Committee, said negotiators from the White House, Senate and House reached a final deal on healthcare reform days before Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts.
 
Labor leaders had announced an agreement with White House and congressional representatives over an excise tax on high-cost insurance plans on the Thursday before the special election.   
 


The latest revelation shows how agonizingly close Democrats came to passing a final healthcare bill in time for President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address.
 
But Sen.-Elect Brown’s stunning victory on Jan. 19 gave Republicans control of 41 seats in the Senate, enough to sustain a GOP filibuster of the healthcare bill.
 
Instead of touting the historic passage of healthcare reform, Obama focused his speech on jobs and the economy. The president waited until the 60th paragraph of his speech to ask Congress not to let reform talks collapse
 
“Do not walk away from reform,” he said. “Not now.”
 
Harkin (D-Iowa), who attended healthcare talks at the White House, said negotiators were on the cusp of bringing a bill back for final votes in the Senate and House.

Harkin said “we had an agreement, with the House, the White House and the Senate. We sent it to [the Congressional Budget Office] to get scored and then Tuesday happened and we didn’t get it back.” He said negotiators had an agreement in hand on Friday, Jan. 15.

Harkin made clear that negotiators had reached a final deal on the entire bill, not just the excise plans, which had been reported the previous day, Jan. 14.
 
Harkin said the deal covered the prescription-drug “donut hole,” the level of federal insurance subsidies, national insurance exchanges and federal Medicaid assistance to states.
 
Senate Democratic aides declined to confirm Harkin’s account. A White House spokesman also declined to comment.
 
A House Democratic aide, however, said not all the issues were resolved.
 
A final healthcare deal is crucial because it could serve as the basis for a sidecar bill that could pass through the House alongside the Senate-passed healthcare bill.
 
Democratic leaders hope the compromises reached by White House, Senate and House negotiators could persuade skeptical House lawmakers to pass the Senate bill. The auxiliary measure, which would include these compromises, could then pass through the House and then the Senate with only 51 votes under special budget reconciliation rules.
 
Shortly after Brown’s victory, Obama suggested that Democratic and Republican lawmakers coalesce around the “core elements” of healthcare reform.
 
"I would advise that we try to move quickly to coalesce around those elements in the package that people agree on," he told ABC News.
 
But Democratic lawmakers have since turned their attention to passing a comprehensive — instead of a scaled-down — healthcare bill, using the reconciliation process to make changes.
 
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said that passing healthcare reform proposals incrementally, as some House Democrats have suggested, could not substitute for a comprehensive bill.
 
Pelosi said there are “some things we can do on the side, which may not fit into a bigger plan.”
 
“That doesn't mean that is a substitute for doing comprehensive,” Pelosi emphasized, adding that she would exhaust all means available.
 
“We will go through the gate. If the gate is closed, we will go over the fence. If the fence is too high, we will pole vault in. If that doesn't work, we will parachute in.”

Democratic aides have already begun assembling a package that would amend the Senate bill.

Sen. Tom Carper, a centrist Democrat from Delaware who played an active role in Senate healthcare talks, said he would reach out to House Democratic centrists to persuade them to vote for the Senate-passed bill along with a sidecar.

“We’ve had some conversations with some of them already,” he said.

Senate sources said that Democratic leaders would wait for political consternation caused by the Massachusetts special election to settle down before making a renewed push.

During the State of the Union address, Obama urged lawmakers to give the proposal a second look.

“As temperatures cool, I want everyone to take another look at the plan we’ve proposed,” he said.

Democrats have essentially given up on the prospect of persuading just one Senate Republican to vote for the pending legislation.

“I think it’s a bridge too far,” said Carper, a member of the Finance Committee who spent months trying to win Republican support for a broad reform bill.

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