Bob's Notes!

Healthcare overhaul comes down to Pelosi and Obama

The bill's fate depends on whether the House speaker can land enough votes - and whether the president can take control of the debate, which Democrats say he has not done.

Reporting from Washington - The fate of healthcare legislation turns on the endgame skills of two Democrats who bring vastly different assets to the task: President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Obama's signature ability to inspire fellow Democrats and Pelosi's well-honed ability to read their parochial needs will be tested as they tackle the job of finding the last stubborn votes for the healthcare bill.

The final push is giving Obama a chance to redeem himself among Democrats who have complained that he has been too detached from the nitty-gritty of crafting the healthcare bill. In recent weeks, he has taken control of the debate, giving his party a second chance after a string of setbacks.

And Pelosi, while notably lacking in Obama's public communications skills, has displayed her ability to corral votes in the Capitol's inner sanctums, which will be a crucial asset.

Under the Democrats' strategy, the House would pass the Senate's version of the bill. Then both chambers would approve changes under the budget reconciliation process, which could pass the Senate with a simple 51-vote majority. Democrats hope to finish by the end of the month.

Obama holds a weak grip on one of the traditional tools of presidential persuasion: promising to personally campaign for nervous Democrats. His recent record has not been encouraging; Democrats have lost elections in Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts despite his efforts.

Pelosi (D-San Francisco) will have less latitude to lure support by slipping in special benefits for key lawmakers and their districts. That kind of horse-trading has been discredited since the outrage over a special deal for Nebraska's Medicaid program in the Senate healthcare bill.

Not a single Republican vote is at hand -- as the Sunday talk shows underscored.

"What the American people would like us to do is not make this gargantuan mistake," Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said on ABC's "This Week." "Every election this fall will be a referendum on this bill."

Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius predicted it would pass, but probably without GOP support.

"I think the president would love to have Republican votes," she said on ABC. "We're hopeful that there will be Republican votes, but I'm not sure there will be."

Within the Democratic majority, Obama and Pelosi face the daunting task of swaying conservatives while not losing liberals who are disappointed with concessions already made.

"A lot of people feel they have been taken for granted," said Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.), one of the disappointed liberals. "It doesn't take much to start a brush fire. You've got a lot of dry brush and cigarette butts dropping."

For months, as the healthcare legislation lumbered through Congress, many Democrats complained that Obama should have been more forceful and specific in his leadership. He did not open the process with a legislative proposal of his own, and declined to take an unequivocal position as Democrats split over what taxes to raise to pay for the bill and whether or not it should include a "public option" -- a government insurance program to compete with private companies.

That above-the-fray strategy began to change in January. Obama offered a comprehensive proposal in his own name and made high-profile gestures to Republicans. He endorsed the use of the reconciliation process and helped Democrats frame it not as a heavy-handed ploy but as a call for an up-or-down vote.

Last week, Obama summoned leaders of House Democratic liberal groups to the White House.

"He told us, 'This is not the end of the road. This is the beginning,' " said Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Petaluma), who added that she would support the bill.

Republicans are trying to make the impending vote as fearsome as possible, objecting to the reconciliation process and threatening dire political consequences for Democrats who face reelection in November.

"They're going to abuse the reconciliation rules," Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." The process has "never been used for such sweeping social legislation like this."

However, Republicans have used the process to pass major legislation, including welfare changes and President George W. Bush's tax cuts.

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