Health Care Reform

Health Care Reform

Final Health Care Tracking Poll: 

58% Oppose the Plan Before Congress

Friday, January 22, 2010 

 Rasmussen Reports has been tracking support and expectations for the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats regularly since last June and weekly for the past six months. Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said House Democrats do not have the votes to pass the legislation in its current form. As a result, this is the final tracking update for that legislation. 

If the Democrats in Congress develop another approach, Rasmussen Reports will resume tracking as appropriate. However, polling released earlier today shows that 61% of voters nationwide want Congress to drop the health care plan and focus on the economy and jobs. 

The final tracking numbers indicate that public expectations for the legislation fell sharply following Tuesday’s Senate vote in Massachusetts. Prior to Republican Scott Brown’s stunning victory in that overwhelmingly Democratic state, 70% of voters nationwide said it was at least somewhat likely the legislation would pass. Polling on Wednesday and Thursday nights found that number had fallen to 42% while 50% said it was unlikely to pass. 

Perhaps more telling is that only 14% now believe the plan is Very Likely to pass while an equal number say it is Not at all Likely to do so. 

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The election of a Republican in Massachusetts had little impact on public support for the legislation, though. The final tracking numbers show that 40% of voters nationwide favor the plan while 58% are opposed. Support has remained between 38% and 42% every week since Thanksgiving (see question wording and trends). 

As has been the case throughout the debate, those who feel strongly about the issue are more likely to be opposed. Just 18% of voters Strongly Favor the plan while 50% are Strongly Opposed. That latter figure is the highest level of strong opposition yet recorded. 

For months, most voters have believed that passage of the plan would lead to higher costs and lower quality of care. From the beginning of the health care debate, another challenge has been the fact that most Americans have insurance and are generally happy with their coverage. However, 52% of voters fear that they could be forced to change insurance if the health care legislation passes. 

Adding to concerns about paying for the plan is the fact that 78% of voters expect it to cost more than projected. Voters overwhelmingly believe passage of the plan will increase the federal deficit and lead to middle-class tax hikes. 

Most voters also dislike the propose excise taxes on “Cadillac” health insurance plans. Opposition is even higher when union workers are exempted from that tax, as the White House and Democratic congressional leaders agreed to do last week to get more support for the overall plan. 

While most Americans oppose the plan, two reforms in it are supported by more than 70% of the public -- creating a new national insurance exchange and requiring health insurance companies to accept applicants with pre-existing conditions. 

Also consistent throughout the health care debate has been the partisan nature of the response. The latest numbers show that 75% of Democrats favor the plan, while 89% of Republicans are opposed. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% support the plan, and 66% are opposed. 

Opposition has been strong from senior citizens, the people who use the health care system more than anybody else. The final tracking numbers show that just 35% of seniors favor the plan while 62% oppose it. Those figures include 14% who Strongly Favor it while 52% are Strongly Opposed. 

Rasmussen Reports election night polling showed that health care was a major issue in the Massachusetts race but not decisive. However, 70% of voters nationwide believe it was at least somewhat important in that campaign. Forty-nine percent (49%) say it was Very Important. 

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